Issue January-30

War: real threat or BS?

Recently there seems to be an increase in people warning us that a serious war is likely within the next 20 years. Some even seem to believe that a major war could be imminent.

A few weeks ago a senior NATO commander stated we should be prepared for conflict with russia in the next twenty years. Jens Stoltenberg, nato's secretary general also recently warned that full blown war with Russia is a real possibility. Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of Nato’s military committee, delivered a chilling message that civilians must brace themselves for the prospect of being called up for military service.

Should we really be scared of Russia?

Why would Russia want to attack or invade our little island? Fish and chips? Is that what they are after? Sick of caviar and borscht they need a change? Hardly, you would think. How about our natural resources after all the need or greed for stuff you are short of or don't have has caused major conflicts in the past.

Then if we take the example of Russia being hell bent on having a direct entrance to the Black Sea what would they have to gain by attacking the UK.

Another possibility is to distract from internal problems. Like Galtieri invading the Falklands to shift public opinion away from the miserable economic state of the Argentine. So presumably with a leader like Vladimir Putin there may be the possibility that in spite of no lack of resources, no lack of sea ports, he might just decide another war could increase his waning popularity. On the other hand, the Russian people are probably sick and tired of the current Ukraine war and would hardly have any appetite to start another conflict elsewhere.

So why the worries? Presumably if you have armed forces which cost ungodly amounts of money and you have senior commanders with nothing to do other than suggest scenarios some of them are going to come up with Armageddon warnings, with the need for more funding and of course more personnel.

With the UK expected soon to have less than 70 thousand troops it makes us look rather insignificant knowing the grand scheme of things. We may be important being a member of the nuclear arms club but how many admirals, generals and air chief marshals do you need to run four nuclear submarines.

It seems quite logical that senior commanders will be banging on the advertising/recruitment drum to justify their existence.

Reading the Telegraph in the last few days one journalist (Sherelle Jacobs) in particular is jumping on the bandwagon. One can't help thinking a journalist who wakes up each morning worrying about what to put into their agreed column. "Oh I know, let's write about a possible nuclear war with Russia and re-awaken 1960's stories on fallout, shelters and survival after a nuclear winter. It makes good reading after all.

So is there danger or just humungous BS.


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