| The now confirmed death of Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is raising questions about the future of the influential mercenary group that has played a key role in the Russia-Ukraine war. Prigozhin died in a plane crash along with his second-in-command Dmitry Utkin.Those who died were Prigozhin, Utkin, and three crew members. Russian emergency services stated that five others were killed, all involved with Wagner. Valery Chekalov, a long Prigozhi ally who was believed to be managing Prigozhin’s assets in Syria, was according to the Guardian also among the dead. Sergey Propustin, a Chechen war veteran who was Prigozhin’s personal security guard also died.According to the Wall Street Journal U.S. intelligence reports claim the crash was a deliberate assassination, probably caused by a bomb explosion while the plane was in midair. Russian authorities are launching a criminal investigation into the incident. Many believe the crash was orchestrated by Russian President Vladimir Putin in retaliation for Prigozhin’s rebellion against the Moscow government this June. The Wagner Group was founded in 2014 and is officially a private for-profit military company. It was backed by the Kremlin. Experts say it has played an essential role in Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The mutiny in June is considered to be the most direct threat Putin has faced in his rule since he took power. After the coup, Prigozhin was allowed to stay in Belarus under a truce brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Rumours say he was also spotted in Russia in July. It seems common knowledge that Prigozhin’s coup would not go unpunished. Who will take over?Amalendu Misra, a professor of international politics at Lancaster University states it is unclear who will replace Prigozhin as head of the organization. The Wagner structure is kept tightly under the radar. Wagner has caused havoc for Putin’s government, Misra predicts that dispite this, the paramilitary group will still play an essential role in Russian foreign policy and importantly remain distinct from the Russian Ministry of Defense. For years Moscow has denied any affiliation with Wagner, it more recently acknowledged the Kremlin’s relationship with the group, when Putin claimed in June 23 that Wagner was “fully financed” by the state. It would seem that the Kremlin always had to strike a delicate balance with Wagner, and it still maintains a distinction between the organization and the state. Many experts believe the Kremlin uses Wagner to conduct Russian foreign policyMisra also states that “The Kremlin is not going to say that a new person was appointed [as leader] because that would open itself up to all sorts of legal issues and accusations of war crimes, so this is going to happen surreptitiously and quietly. I would guess all this might have been planned a long time ago.Prigozhin grew his fortune and made a name for himself through his close ties to Putin. He was also a prolific social media user, frequently posting scathing criticisms of the Russian defense minister Segei Shoigu and the Russian chief of general staff, Valery Gerasimov - full of profanity.It’s likely that for the future Putin will pick someone with less of a public profile. They will not want anybody likely to cause any confrontation.Wagner in UkraineIn June 23 after the coup the Wagner group was officially disbanded in Ukraine. A month later in July U.S. intelligence reported there were no longer any Wagner fighters in the country. They are still active training special forces in Belarus. On Augst 4 2023 Wagner was officially registered as an educational company by the Belarusian government. Because the mercenary group’s fighters tended to be more highly trained and were more efficient on the battlefield than official Russian Army soldiers the Wagner troops were essential to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This is according to Andreas Krieg, a professor of security studies at King’s College London. Krieg told news media in June 23 that “Wagner is structured like a special forces unit where there’s quite a lot of autonomy for boots on the ground to make decisions as they see fit. That makes them far more dynamic and agile than the Russian military, which is still a post-Soviet military and is very hierarchically structured.”Wagner’s theoretic independence from the Russian government gives the Kremlin plausible deniability regarding the group’s military activities. This has allowed Russia to conduct operations both in Ukraine and around the world in a more clandestine manner. Again Misra states that "Wagner serves a critical purpose for the Kremlin, the Kremlin needs an organization which can do its dirty work effectively". Russia’s relationship with African nationsWagner has maintained a presence in Africa for a decade, mainly supporting autocratic regimes. The mercenaries have played a role propping up the junta in Mali, supporting the the Central African Republic (CAR) army against rebel groups and fighting jihadists in Mozambique, all with varying degrees of success.Thierry Vircoulon, an associate research fellow at the Sub-Saharan Africa Center of the French Institute of International Relations and expert on such matters stated “African governments have been worried since the mutiny about Russian support, they are probably getting much more anxious now. It makes people think about the fact that they are dependent on the power struggle in Moscow … and that’s very worrying for them.”Wagner is crucial to Russia expanding its influence in Africa, particularly after the Kremlin has been condemned and shunned by much of the international community following the Ukrainian invasion. Even the coup which was widely and openly reported made public the animosity between the Wagner Group and the Russian state, Wagner’s operations in Africa were hailed by both sides. Russia’s foreign minister Lavrov reassured his African allies that Wagner would continue its operations in Mali and CAR, where the group has official contracts and where Wagner was, he said, "doing a good job."In a video posted of Prigozhin—made since the mutiny—which it is believed was filmed somewhere in Africa he stated “making Russia even greater on all continents, and Africa even more free”. Earlier that month, he had claimed the group had restored peace after a military coup in Niger.The plane crash came at a sensitive time in Russia-Africa relations, because Putin has incurred the ire of some leaders in the African continent.On June 16 2023, a delegation of African leaders arrived in Kyiv on a peace mission, at the same time the city was hit by Russian airstrikes. A day later in Russia, Putin showed disinterest in the African delegation’s peace plans, by interrupting their presentations and out-right rejecting parts of their proposal. This was seen as a clear sign of disrespect. So at the highly-anticipated Russia-Africa summit the following month, only 17 heads of state attended even though 49 African countries that sent delegations.William Gumede, professor at the University of Witwatersrand School of Governance in Johannesburg has reported "Those two incidents have really undermined African support of Putin”. “So now, with the death of the Wagner leader, I think it will further decrease the support of Russia in Africa."Wagner’s future in AfricaAfrican leaders may now implement greater caution when dealing with Moscow, even though in the main Russian-African relations are unlikely to change.Wagner personnel in Africa may well be demoralized after the death of Prigozhin and his deputy. This according to Alex Vines, director of the Africa programme at Chatham House, might drive some to leave the unit. It may also serve as a reminder to leaders in the region that “accepting a tight Russian embrace is not in their interests.” Vines says, “Even so, Many African countries will continue to engage with Moscow—as they believe multipolarity is best for them.”The strategic importance of Wagner to Russia’s foreign policy cannot be ignored. For the most part, Wagner’s business model fell in line with Russia’s foreign policy—it appealed to African states that felt neglected by the West. which is especially important now Russia finds itself more isolated on the world stage. Wagner will almost certainly remain in Africa in some form according to Federica Saini Fasanotti, a senior fellow in the Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology."They will remain because they are an important strategic asset of the Kremlin in Africa. Putin needs this presence desperately right now because of the situation of Russia on the international stage," she says. "And so I think that Wagner would remain no matter what."-/-London 28. August 2023-pw-Imprint/ImpressumTo protect your privacy we neither store cookies nor use any google add-ons such as google analytics |
